Rice’s third-down conversion rate in a conference game and in a nonconference game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Rice was 1.1 percentage points under in a conference game and 9.3 percentage points under in a nonconference game over its last 25 games, 16 games against 7. The plain averages are 34.8% and 32.2%, a difference of 2.5%. Both opponents outside the major colleges were in a nonconference game. All 4 of Pete Alamar’s games were in a conference game.
Rice’s +8.2% in a conference game vs in a nonconference game over expected ranks 21st of the 134 teams with 4 games on each side over their last 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +8.2% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were in a conference game and it comes up 15 times in 100.
A +2.5% difference in third-down conversion rate in a conference game vs in a nonconference game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | vs Navy | W | 50.0% | 37.7% | |
| Nov 8, 2024 | @ Memphis | L | 37.5% | 38.6% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ UAB | L | 37.5% | 40.1% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs South Florida | W | 33.3% | 37.6% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Louisiana | W | 41.7% | 37.4% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Houston | L | 26.7% | 34.8% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Prairie View A&M | W | 42.9% | — | |
| Sep 18, 2025 | @ Charlotte | W | 41.7% | 35.3% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @Navy | L | 26.7% | 34.7% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Florida Atlantic | L | 62.5% | 36.2% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ UTSA | L | 33.3% | 30.7% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs UConn | W | 33.3% | 36.0% | |
| Oct 31, 2025 | vsMemphis | L | 18.8% | 36.5% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vsUAB | W | 29.4% | 39.6% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs North Texas | L | 42.9% | 37.9% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @South Florida | L | 30.8% | 34.4% | |
| Jan 2, 2026 | vs Texas State (neutral) | L | 17.6% | 40.0% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsHHouston Christian | W | 64.7% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Notre Dame | L | 16.7% | 32.9% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Western Michigan | L | 10.0% | 35.7% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Fresno State | L | 36.4% | 30.7% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsUTSA | L | 15.4% | 34.9% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ East Carolina | L | 20.0% | 30.4% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Tulsa | L | 36.4% | 35.2% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Florida Atlantic | L | 40.0% | 34.8% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6% in 2024, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 50% in 2024, 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Prairie View A&M, Houston Christian have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.