Pittsburgh’s penalty yards after a bye and on a normal week
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Through Pittsburgh’s game on Dec 27, 2025.
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Pittsburgh was 22.4 yards under after a bye and 18.0 yards over on a normal week over its last 25 games, 4 games against 17. The plain averages are 37.5 and 74.6, a difference of 37.1.
Pittsburgh’s −40.4 after a bye vs on a normal week over expected ranks 125th of the 125 teams with 4 games on each side over their last 25 games through Dec 27, 2025.
penalty yards a game over expected
after a bye
−22.4
on a normal week
+18.0
050
A −40.4 difference in penalty yards over expected after a bye vs on a normal week is rare: shuffle which games were after a bye and it comes up once in 100.
plain
37.5
74.6
50100
A −37.1 difference in penalty yards after a bye vs on a normal week is rare: shuffle which games were after a bye and it comes up once in 100.
The games
after a byeon a normal week
| Side | Date | Game | Result | penalty yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 7, 2024 | @ Cincinnati | W | 50 | 49.5 | |
| Sep 14, 2024 | vs West Virginia | W | 112 | 48.4 | |
| Sep 21, 2024 | vsYYoungstown State | W | 60 | — | |
| Oct 5, 2024 | @ North Carolina | W | 43 | 60.9 | |
| Oct 12, 2024 | vs California | W | 65 | 59.0 | |
| Oct 24, 2024 | vs Syracuse | W | 28 | 56.6 | |
| Nov 2, 2024 | @ SMU | L | 66 | 59.1 | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs Virginia | L | 75 | 58.0 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Clemson | L | 100 | 53.1 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Louisville | L | 45 | 53.0 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Boston College | L | 48 | 57.8 | |
| Dec 26, 2024 | vs Toledo (neutral) | L | 41 | 63.9 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Duquesne | W | 35 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Central Michigan | W | 63 | 61.8 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @West Virginia | L | 118 | 58.4 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vsLouisville | L | 38 | 61.1 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vsBoston College | W | 70 | 64.5 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Florida State | W | 55 | 61.6 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @Syracuse | W | 109 | 57.7 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs NC State | W | 46 | 64.8 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Stanford | W | 93 | 61.8 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Notre Dame | L | 41 | 61.0 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Georgia Tech | W | 80 | 61.3 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Miami (FL) | L | 88 | 47.6 | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vs East Carolina (neutral) | L | 35 | 62.1 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.8 in 2024, minus 2.1 in 2025 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 44% in 2024, 45% in 2025 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Youngstown State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- 3 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither after a bye nor on a normal week, and sit out.