Penn State’s third-down conversion rate with Chase Sowell and since Chase Sowell’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Penn State was 2.2 percentage points under with Chase Sowell and 2.6 percentage points under since Chase Sowell’s last game over its last 25 games, 7 games against 1. The plain averages are 34.9% and 38.5%, a difference of 3.5%. Expected was 3.9 percentage points lower with Chase Sowell than since Chase Sowell’s last game. All 3 away games were with Chase Sowell. All 4 games while ranked were with Chase Sowell. All 3 nonconference games were with Chase Sowell.
Chase Sowell, receiver: 510 receiving yards, 34 receptions and 3 receiving touchdowns in 7 of those 25 games.
One game since Chase Sowell’s last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Chase Sowell
−2.2%
since Chase Sowell’s last game
−2.6%
-20%-10%0%10%
plain
34.9%
38.5%
20%30%40%50%
The games
with Chase Sowellsince Chase Sowell’s last game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2024 | vs Oregon (neutral) | L | 53.8% | 36.8% | |
| Dec 21, 2024 | vs SMU | W | 46.2% | 39.1% | |
| Dec 31, 2024 | vs Boise State (neutral) | W | 38.5% | 41.4% | |
| Jan 9, 2025 | vs Notre Dame (neutral) | L | 27.3% | 39.3% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Nevada | W | 46.2% | 44.5% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Florida International | W | 25.0% | 47.7% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Villanova | W | 45.5% | — | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vsOregon | L | 40.0% | 39.1% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ UCLA | L | 44.4% | 47.5% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Northwestern | L | 54.5% | 42.4% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Iowa | L | 37.5% | 36.3% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Ohio State | L | 53.3% | 31.8% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Indiana | L | 53.3% | 33.9% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Michigan State | W | 20.0% | 43.5% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Nebraska | W | 55.6% | 41.6% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Rutgers | W | 12.5% | 44.5% | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vs Clemson (neutral) | W | 57.9% | 34.7% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Marshall | W | 50.0% | 34.6% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Temple | W | 50.0% | 42.4% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Buffalo | W | 20.0% | 40.1% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Wisconsin | L | 38.9% | 36.1% | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | @Northwestern | L | 35.7% | 35.6% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs USC | L | 16.7% | 38.0% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Michigan | L | 33.3% | 33.3% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Purdue | W | 38.5% | 41.1% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 6 of these 8 games; in the other 2 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Chase Sowell nor since Chase Sowell’s last game: Chase Sowell had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.