Penn State’s third-down conversion rate with Cam Wallace and without Cam Wallace
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Penn State was 4.7 percentage points under with Cam Wallace and 3.7 percentage points over without Cam Wallace over its last 25 games, 10 games against 14. The plain averages are 35.4% and 43.3%, a difference of 7.9%. All 4 neutral-site games were without Cam Wallace. All 6 top-10 opponents were without Cam Wallace. All 4 bowl and playoff games were without Cam Wallace.
Cam Wallace, running back: 283 rushing yards, 50 carries and 5 receptions in 8 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −8.4% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Cam Wallace vs without Cam Wallace is about what you’d expect.
A −7.9% difference in third-down conversion rate with Cam Wallace vs without Cam Wallace is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2024 | vs Oregon (neutral) | L | 53.8% | 36.8% | |
| Dec 21, 2024 | vs SMU | W | 46.2% | 39.1% | |
| Dec 31, 2024 | vs Boise State (neutral) | W | 38.5% | 41.4% | |
| Jan 9, 2025 | vs Notre Dame (neutral) | L | 27.3% | 39.3% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Nevada | W | 46.2% | 44.5% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Florida International | W | 25.0% | 47.7% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Villanova | W | 45.5% | — | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vsOregon | L | 40.0% | 39.1% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ UCLA | L | 44.4% | 47.5% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Northwestern | L | 54.5% | 42.4% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Iowa | L | 37.5% | 36.3% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Ohio State | L | 53.3% | 31.8% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Indiana | L | 53.3% | 33.9% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Michigan State | W | 20.0% | 43.5% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Nebraska | W | 55.6% | 41.6% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Rutgers | W | 12.5% | 44.5% | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vs Clemson (neutral) | W | 57.9% | 34.7% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Marshall | W | 50.0% | 34.6% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Temple | W | 50.0% | 42.4% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Buffalo | W | 20.0% | 39.9% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Wisconsin | L | 38.9% | 36.1% | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | @Northwestern | L | 35.7% | 35.6% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs USC | L | 16.7% | 38.0% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Michigan | L | 33.3% | 33.3% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Purdue | W | 38.5% | 41.1% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6% in 2024, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 50% in 2024, 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Villanova has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 13 of these 25 games; in the other 12 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.