Penn State’s third-down conversion rate with Cam Wallace and without Cam Wallace
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Penn State was 2.6 percentage points under with Cam Wallace and 0.1 percentage points over without Cam Wallace in 2026, 7 games against 1. The plain averages are 35.3% and 35.7%, a difference of 0.4%. Expected was 2.3 percentage points higher with Cam Wallace than without Cam Wallace. All 5 home games were with Cam Wallace. All 4 games while ranked were with Cam Wallace. All 3 nonconference games were with Cam Wallace.
Cam Wallace, running back: 260 rushing yards, 44 carries and 4 receptions in 5 games this season.
One game without Cam Wallace is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Cam Wallace
−2.6%
without Cam Wallace
+0.1%
-20%-10%0%10%
plain
35.3%
35.7%
20%30%40%50%
The games
with Cam Wallacewithout Cam Wallace
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Marshall | W | 50.0% | 34.6% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Temple | W | 50.0% | 42.4% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Buffalo | W | 20.0% | 39.9% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Wisconsin | L | 38.9% | 36.1% | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | @ Northwestern | L | 35.7% | 35.6% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs USC | L | 16.7% | 38.0% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Michigan | L | 33.3% | 33.3% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Purdue | W | 38.5% | 41.1% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 6 of these 8 games; in the other 2 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.