Penn State’s points with Chase Sowell and since Chase Sowell’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Penn State was 1.3 points over with Chase Sowell and 1.0 points under since Chase Sowell’s last game in 2026, 7 games against 1. The plain averages are 28.7 and 31.0, a difference of 2.3. Expected was 4.6 points lower with Chase Sowell than since Chase Sowell’s last game. All 3 away games were with Chase Sowell. All 4 games while ranked were with Chase Sowell. All 3 nonconference games were with Chase Sowell.
Chase Sowell, receiver: 510 receiving yards, 34 receptions and 3 receiving touchdowns in 7 games this season.
One game since Chase Sowell’s last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
with Chase Sowell
+1.3
since Chase Sowell’s last game
−1.0
-1001020
plain
28.7
31.0
2040
The games
with Chase Sowellsince Chase Sowell’s last game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Marshall | W | 45 | 31.4 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Temple | W | 27 | 31.8 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Buffalo | W | 55 | 29.0 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Wisconsin | L | 20 | 21.9 | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | @ Northwestern | L | 13 | 25.4 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs USC | L | 23 | 29.2 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Michigan | L | 18 | 22.9 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Purdue | W | 31 | 32.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.9 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 6 of these 8 games; in the other 2 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.