Penn State’s carries with Chase Sowell and since Chase Sowell’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Penn State was 2.0 carries under with Chase Sowell and 17.3 carries over since Chase Sowell’s last game in 2026, 7 games against 1. The plain averages are 34.0 and 51.0, a difference of 17.0. All 3 away games were with Chase Sowell. All 4 games while ranked were with Chase Sowell. All 3 nonconference games were with Chase Sowell.
Chase Sowell, receiver: 510 receiving yards, 34 receptions and 3 receiving touchdowns in 7 games this season.
One game since Chase Sowell’s last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
with Chase Sowell
−2.0
since Chase Sowell’s last game
+17.3
-10010
plain
34.0
51.0
304050
The games
with Chase Sowellsince Chase Sowell’s last game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Marshall | W | 45 | 35.0 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Temple | W | 34 | 37.0 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Buffalo | W | 41 | 37.7 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Wisconsin | L | 36 | 36.7 | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | @ Northwestern | L | 22 | 34.7 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs USC | L | 31 | 35.8 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Michigan | L | 29 | 34.8 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Purdue | W | 51 | 33.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 6 of these 8 games; in the other 2 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.