Penn State’s carries with Cam Wallace and without Cam Wallace
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Penn State was 2.3 carries over with Cam Wallace and 12.7 carries under without Cam Wallace in 2026, 7 games against 1. The plain averages are 38.1 and 22.0, a difference of 16.1. All 5 home games were with Cam Wallace. All 4 games while ranked were with Cam Wallace. All 3 nonconference games were with Cam Wallace.
Cam Wallace, running back: 260 rushing yards, 44 carries and 4 receptions in 5 games this season, 21% of Penn State’s carries in those games.
One game without Cam Wallace is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
with Cam Wallace
+2.3
without Cam Wallace
−12.7
-10010
plain
38.1
22.0
304050
The games
with Cam Wallacewithout Cam Wallace
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Marshall | W | 45 | 35.0 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Temple | W | 34 | 37.0 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Buffalo | W | 41 | 37.7 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Wisconsin | L | 36 | 36.7 | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | @ Northwestern | L | 22 | 34.7 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs USC | L | 31 | 35.8 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Michigan | L | 29 | 34.8 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Purdue | W | 51 | 33.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 6 of these 8 games; in the other 2 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.