Oklahoma State’s third-down conversion rate with Chris Barnes and without Chris Barnes
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Oklahoma State was 5.9 percentage points under with Chris Barnes and 33.9 percentage points over without Chris Barnes over its last 25 games, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 34.2% and 61.9%, a difference of 27.7%. All 3 day games were with Chris Barnes. Both ranked opponents were with Chris Barnes.
Chris Barnes, receiver: 179 receiving yards and 11 receptions in 5 of those 25 games.
2 games without Chris Barnes is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −27.7% difference in third-down conversion rate with Chris Barnes vs without Chris Barnes is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Chris Barnes and it comes up 6 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2024 | @ Baylor | L | 26.7% | 36.3% | |
| Nov 2, 2024 | vs Arizona State | L | 27.3% | 40.1% | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ TCU | L | 41.7% | 39.8% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Texas Tech | L | 22.2% | 35.6% | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | @ Colorado | L | 20.0% | 37.4% | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | vsUUT Martin | W | 55.6% | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Oregon | L | 25.0% | 32.6% | |
| Sep 19, 2025 | vs Tulsa | L | 26.7% | 40.9% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vsBaylor | L | 37.5% | 37.8% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Arizona | L | 17.6% | 34.5% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Houston | L | 35.7% | 36.5% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Cincinnati | L | 46.2% | 37.2% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @Texas Tech | L | 29.4% | 29.7% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Kansas | L | 57.1% | 35.1% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Kansas State | L | 41.7% | 34.1% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ UCF | L | 30.8% | 35.2% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Iowa State | L | 15.4% | 38.9% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @Tulsa | L | 31.3% | 44.6% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsOregon | W | 29.4% | 34.2% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsMMurray State | W | 57.1% | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ West Virginia | W | 20.0% | 42.9% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsUCF | W | 44.4% | 40.8% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Houston | L | 37.5% | 40.5% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsColorado | W | 42.9% | 37.7% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @Iowa State | L | 66.7% | 32.8% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Murray State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Chris Barnes nor without Chris Barnes: Chris Barnes had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.