Oklahoma State’s third-down conversion rate with Ayo Adeyi and since Ayo Adeyi’s last game
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Oklahoma State was 8.1 percentage points under with Ayo Adeyi and 19.5 percentage points over since Ayo Adeyi’s last game in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 36.6% and 54.8%, a difference of 18.1%. All 3 day games were with Ayo Adeyi. Both ranked opponents were with Ayo Adeyi. All 3 nonconference games were with Ayo Adeyi.
Ayo Adeyi, running back: 200 rushing yards, 30 carries and 4 receptions in 6 games this season.
2 games since Ayo Adeyi’s last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −27.6% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Ayo Adeyi vs since Ayo Adeyi’s last game is unusual: shuffle which games were with Ayo Adeyi and it comes up 4 times in 100.
A −18.1% difference in third-down conversion rate with Ayo Adeyi vs since Ayo Adeyi’s last game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Ayo Adeyi and it comes up 16 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Tulsa | L | 31.3% | 44.6% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Oregon | W | 29.4% | 34.2% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsMMurray State | W | 57.1% | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ West Virginia | W | 20.0% | 42.9% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs UCF | W | 44.4% | 40.8% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Houston | L | 37.5% | 40.5% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Colorado | W | 42.9% | 37.7% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Iowa State | L | 66.7% | 32.8% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Murray State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.