Oklahoma State’s rushing yards with Ayo Adeyi and since Ayo Adeyi’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Oklahoma State was 4.3 yards under with Ayo Adeyi and 44.1 yards over since Ayo Adeyi’s last game in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 191.2 and 200.0, a difference of 8.8. Expected was 16.4 yards higher with Ayo Adeyi than since Ayo Adeyi’s last game. All 3 day games were with Ayo Adeyi. Both ranked opponents were with Ayo Adeyi. All 3 nonconference games were with Ayo Adeyi.
Ayo Adeyi, running back: 200 rushing yards, 30 carries and 4 receptions in 6 games this season, 17% of Oklahoma State’s rushing yards in those games.
2 games since Ayo Adeyi’s last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
rushing yards a game over expected
A −48.4 difference in rushing yards over expected with Ayo Adeyi vs since Ayo Adeyi’s last game is about what you’d expect.
A −8.8 difference in rushing yards with Ayo Adeyi vs since Ayo Adeyi’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | rushing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Tulsa | L | 127 | 209.2 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Oregon | W | 244 | 152.8 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsMMurray State | W | 307 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ West Virginia | W | 224 | 183.6 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs UCF | W | 111 | 177.5 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Houston | L | 134 | 138.1 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Colorado | W | 188 | 141.7 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Iowa State | L | 212 | 170.1 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 8.1 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 60% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Murray State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.