Oklahoma State’s rushing yards vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent
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Through Oklahoma State’s game on Sep 12, 2026.
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Oklahoma State was 49.3 yards over vs a ranked opponent and 37.7 yards under vs an unranked opponent over its last 25 games, 8 games against 16. The plain averages are 154.9 and 106.6, a difference of 48.3.
Oklahoma State’s +87.0 vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent over expected ranks 1st of the 77 teams with 4 games on each side over their last 25 games through Sep 12, 2026.
rushing yards a game over expected
A +87.0 difference in rushing yards over expected vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent is rare: shuffle which games were vs a ranked opponent and it comes up less than once in 100.
A +48.3 difference in rushing yards vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent is unusual: shuffle which games were vs a ranked opponent and it comes up 5 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | rushing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 7, 2024 | vs Arkansas | W | 59 | 139.5 | |
| Sep 14, 2024 | @ Tulsa | W | 129 | 178.3 | |
| Sep 21, 2024 | vs Utah | L | 48 | 133.7 | |
| Sep 28, 2024 | @ Kansas State | L | 135 | 94.3 | |
| Oct 5, 2024 | vs West Virginia | L | 38 | 128.3 | |
| Oct 18, 2024 | @ BYU | L | 269 | 78.5 | |
| Oct 26, 2024 | @ Baylor | L | 74 | 140.0 | |
| Nov 2, 2024 | vs Arizona State | L | 82 | 96.2 | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ TCU | L | 136 | 135.7 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Texas Tech | L | 213 | 131.5 | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | @ Colorado | L | 76 | 122.8 | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | vsUUT Martin | W | 127 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Oregon | L | 144 | 82.8 | |
| Sep 19, 2025 | vsTulsa | L | 185 | 168.8 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vsBaylor | L | 158 | 163.8 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Arizona | L | 89 | 122.7 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Houston | L | 45 | 137.7 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Cincinnati | L | 228 | 140.0 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @Texas Tech | L | 95 | 39.6 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Kansas | L | 72 | 141.3 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vsKansas State | L | 147 | 134.5 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ UCF | L | 104 | 118.5 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Iowa State | L | 27 | 141.7 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @Tulsa | L | 127 | 209.2 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsOregon | W | 244 | 152.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.8 in 2024, plus 5.9 in 2025, plus 8.0 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 75% in 2024, 77% in 2025, 60% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- UT Martin has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Read against the season’s ratings as of Oct 31, 2026; the games are the ones through Sep 12.