Oklahoma State’s points with Ayo Adeyi and since Ayo Adeyi’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Oklahoma State was 3.1 points under with Ayo Adeyi and 22.2 points over since Ayo Adeyi’s last game over its last 25 games, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 37.2 and 53.0, a difference of 15.8. All 3 day games were with Ayo Adeyi. Both ranked opponents were with Ayo Adeyi. All 3 nonconference games were with Ayo Adeyi.
Ayo Adeyi, running back: 200 rushing yards, 30 carries and 4 receptions in 6 of those 25 games.
2 games since Ayo Adeyi’s last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
A −25.3 difference in points over expected with Ayo Adeyi vs since Ayo Adeyi’s last game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Ayo Adeyi and it comes up 17 times in 100.
A −15.8 difference in points with Ayo Adeyi vs since Ayo Adeyi’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2024 | @ Baylor | L | 28 | 24.9 | |
| Nov 2, 2024 | vs Arizona State | L | 21 | 23.0 | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ TCU | L | 13 | 26.3 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Texas Tech | L | 48 | 27.7 | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | @ Colorado | L | 0 | 24.2 | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | vsUUT Martin | W | 27 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Oregon | L | 3 | 6.6 | |
| Sep 19, 2025 | vs Tulsa | L | 12 | 28.7 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vsBaylor | L | 27 | 23.5 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Arizona | L | 13 | 9.9 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Houston | L | 17 | 19.2 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Cincinnati | L | 17 | 19.2 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @Texas Tech | L | 0 | 4.2 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Kansas | L | 21 | 16.2 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Kansas State | L | 6 | 18.7 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ UCF | L | 14 | 14.7 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Iowa State | L | 13 | 14.2 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @Tulsa | L | 10 | 43.9 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsOregon | W | 39 | 28.8 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsMMurray State | W | 59 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ West Virginia | W | 41 | 42.6 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsUCF | W | 42 | 36.4 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Houston | L | 32 | 27.7 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsColorado | W | 57 | 30.5 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @Iowa State | L | 49 | 31.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.9 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Murray State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Ayo Adeyi nor since Ayo Adeyi’s last game: Ayo Adeyi had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.