Oklahoma State’s points allowed with Ayo Adeyi and since Ayo Adeyi’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Oklahoma State was 3.1 points under with Ayo Adeyi and 13.6 points over since Ayo Adeyi’s last game in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 23.7 and 37.5, a difference of 13.8. All 3 day games were with Ayo Adeyi. Both ranked opponents were with Ayo Adeyi. All 3 nonconference games were with Ayo Adeyi.
Ayo Adeyi, running back: 200 rushing yards, 30 carries and 4 receptions in 6 games this season.
2 games since Ayo Adeyi’s last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points allowed a game over expected
A −16.7 difference in points allowed over expected with Ayo Adeyi vs since Ayo Adeyi’s last game is unusual: shuffle which games were with Ayo Adeyi and it comes up 4 times in 100.
A −13.8 difference in points allowed with Ayo Adeyi vs since Ayo Adeyi’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Tulsa | L | 24 | 28.2 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Oregon | W | 31 | 28.3 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsMMurray State | W | 0 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ West Virginia | W | 24 | 39.6 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs UCF | W | 28 | 28.5 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Houston | L | 35 | 33.1 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Colorado | W | 24 | 20.8 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Iowa State | L | 51 | 27.1 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 1.9 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Murray State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.