Oklahoma State’s pass attempts with Chris Barnes and without Chris Barnes
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Oklahoma State was 1.8 pass attempts over with Chris Barnes and 8.4 pass attempts over without Chris Barnes in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 36.5 and 35.0, a difference of 1.5. All 3 day games were with Chris Barnes. Both ranked opponents were with Chris Barnes.
Chris Barnes, receiver: 179 receiving yards and 11 receptions in 5 games this season.
2 games without Chris Barnes is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
pass attempts a game over expected
with Chris Barnes
+1.8
without Chris Barnes
+8.4
-10010
plain
36.5
35.0
3040
A +1.5 difference in pass attempts with Chris Barnes vs without Chris Barnes is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Chris Barneswithout Chris Barnes
| Side | Date | Game | Result | pass attempts | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Tulsa | L | 49 | 32.6 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Oregon | W | 43 | 32.9 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsMMurray State | W | 28 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ West Virginia | W | 27 | 38.7 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs UCF | W | 28 | 36.9 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Houston | L | 34 | 34.7 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Colorado | W | 38 | 32.1 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Iowa State | L | 42 | 33.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.1 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 60% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Murray State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.