Oklahoma State’s carries with Chris Barnes and without Chris Barnes
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Oklahoma State was 0.6 carries under with Chris Barnes and 0.4 carries over without Chris Barnes over its last 25 games, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 34.3 and 36.5, a difference of 2.2. Expected was 4.4 carries higher with Chris Barnes than without Chris Barnes. All 3 day games were with Chris Barnes. Both ranked opponents were with Chris Barnes.
Chris Barnes, receiver: 179 receiving yards and 11 receptions in 5 of those 25 games, 1% of Oklahoma State’s carries in those games.
2 games without Chris Barnes is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A −2.2 difference in carries with Chris Barnes vs without Chris Barnes is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2024 | @ Baylor | L | 34 | 31.0 | |
| Nov 2, 2024 | vs Arizona State | L | 22 | 26.6 | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ TCU | L | 35 | 32.0 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Texas Tech | L | 28 | 30.1 | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | @ Colorado | L | 30 | 33.0 | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | vsUUT Martin | W | 42 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Oregon | L | 42 | 27.8 | |
| Sep 19, 2025 | vs Tulsa | L | 33 | 37.9 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vsBaylor | L | 31 | 37.4 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Arizona | L | 31 | 34.6 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Houston | L | 31 | 32.5 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Cincinnati | L | 48 | 36.1 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @Texas Tech | L | 32 | 27.8 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Kansas | L | 31 | 32.8 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Kansas State | L | 29 | 36.4 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ UCF | L | 30 | 33.0 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Iowa State | L | 23 | 31.7 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @Tulsa | L | 37 | 39.4 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsOregon | W | 37 | 36.0 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsMMurray State | W | 42 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ West Virginia | W | 38 | 33.0 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsUCF | W | 31 | 36.1 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Houston | L | 25 | 30.3 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsColorado | W | 38 | 35.0 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @Iowa State | L | 31 | 30.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Murray State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Chris Barnes nor without Chris Barnes: Chris Barnes had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.