Oklahoma State’s carries vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Oklahoma State was 3.8 carries over vs a ranked opponent and 2.2 carries under vs an unranked opponent over its last 25 games, 6 games against 17. The plain averages are 35.7 and 32.5, a difference of 3.2. All 4 games after a bye were vs an unranked opponent.
Oklahoma State’s +6.0 vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent over expected ranks 3rd of the 77 teams with 4 games on each side over their last 25 games.
carries a game over expected
A +6.0 difference in carries over expected vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were vs a ranked opponent and it comes up 5 times in 100.
A +3.2 difference in carries vs a ranked opponent and vs an unranked opponent is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2024 | @ Baylor | L | 34 | 31.0 | |
| Nov 2, 2024 | vs Arizona State | L | 22 | 26.6 | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ TCU | L | 35 | 32.0 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Texas Tech | L | 28 | 30.1 | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | @ Colorado | L | 30 | 33.0 | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | vsUUT Martin | W | 42 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Oregon | L | 42 | 27.8 | |
| Sep 19, 2025 | vs Tulsa | L | 33 | 37.9 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vsBaylor | L | 31 | 37.4 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Arizona | L | 31 | 34.6 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Houston | L | 31 | 32.5 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Cincinnati | L | 48 | 36.1 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @Texas Tech | L | 32 | 27.8 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Kansas | L | 31 | 32.8 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Kansas State | L | 29 | 36.4 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ UCF | L | 30 | 33.0 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Iowa State | L | 23 | 31.7 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @Tulsa | L | 37 | 39.4 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsOregon | W | 37 | 36.0 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsMMurray State | W | 42 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ West Virginia | W | 38 | 33.0 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsUCF | W | 31 | 36.1 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Houston | L | 25 | 30.3 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsColorado | W | 38 | 35.0 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @Iowa State | L | 31 | 30.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.1 in 2024, plus 0.3 in 2025, plus 0.6 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 73% in 2024, 74% in 2025, 61% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- UT Martin, Murray State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.