Northwestern’s points of margin with Josh Fussell and without Josh Fussell
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Northwestern was 0.3 points under with Josh Fussell and 0.8 points under without Josh Fussell over its last 25 games, 15 games against 8. The plain averages are -0.8 and 13.3, a difference of 14.0. Expected was 18.1 points lower with Josh Fussell than without Josh Fussell. All 5 neutral-site games were with Josh Fussell. All 4 night games were with Josh Fussell. All 6 ranked opponents were with Josh Fussell.
Josh Fussell, defender: 16 of those 25 games.
points of margin a game over expected
with Josh Fussell
−0.3
without Josh Fussell
−0.8
-20020
A +0.6 difference in points of margin over expected with Josh Fussell vs without Josh Fussell is about what you’d expect.
plain
-0.8
13.3
-40-20020
A −14.0 difference in points of margin with Josh Fussell vs without Josh Fussell is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Josh Fussellwithout Josh Fussell
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | @ Purdue | W | 6 | 12.3 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Ohio State (neutral) | L | -24 | -30.0 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Michigan | L | -44 | -10.7 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Illinois (neutral) | L | -10 | -9.8 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Tulane | L | -20 | 3.6 | |
| Sep 5, 2025 | vsWWestern Illinois | W | 35 | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Oregon | L | -20 | -17.4 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs UCLA | W | 3 | 10.8 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Louisiana Monroe | W | 35 | 30.8 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Penn State | W | 1 | -14.2 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vsPurdue | W | 19 | 8.7 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Nebraska | L | -7 | -2.3 | |
| Nov 7, 2025 | @ USC | L | -21 | -13.8 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vsMichigan (neutral) | L | -2 | -8.7 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Minnesota (neutral) | W | 3 | 5.3 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @Illinois | L | -7 | -9.1 | |
| Dec 26, 2025 | vs Central Michigan (neutral) | W | 27 | 15.8 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsSSouth Dakota State | W | 16 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Colorado | W | 34 | 13.5 | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | @ Indiana | L | -6 | -5.7 | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | vsPenn State | W | 21 | 3.2 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Ball State | W | 31 | 36.2 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Michigan State | W | 3 | 9.7 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Rutgers | W | 28 | 24.4 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @Oregon | L | -8 | -0.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.0 in 2024, plus 3.1 in 2025, plus 3.7 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 85% in 2024, 87% in 2025, 79% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Western Illinois, South Dakota State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 14 of these 25 games; in the other 11 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.