Northwestern’s points of margin with Josh Fussell and since Josh Fussell’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Northwestern was 10.1 points over with Josh Fussell and 0.3 points over since Josh Fussell’s last game in 2026, 2 games against 5. The plain averages are 14.7 and 15.0, a difference of 0.3. Expected was 10.7 points lower with Josh Fussell than since Josh Fussell’s last game. All 3 games while ranked were since Josh Fussell’s last game. All 4 second-half games were since Josh Fussell’s last game.
Josh Fussell, defender: 2 games this season.
3 games with Josh Fussell is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A +9.7 difference in points of margin over expected with Josh Fussell vs since Josh Fussell’s last game is about what you’d expect.
A −0.3 difference in points of margin with Josh Fussell vs since Josh Fussell’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsSSouth Dakota State | W | 16 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Colorado | W | 34 | 13.5 | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | @ Indiana | L | -6 | -5.7 | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | vs Penn State | W | 21 | 3.2 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Ball State | W | 31 | 36.2 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Michigan State | W | 3 | 9.7 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Rutgers | W | 28 | 24.4 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Oregon | L | -8 | -0.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- South Dakota State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 6 of these 8 games; in the other 2 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.