Northwestern’s carries at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Northwestern was 5.7 carries over at home and 3.5 carries under away over its last 25 games, 8 games against 10. The plain averages are 40.2 and 30.7, a difference of 9.5. Both opponents outside the major colleges were at home.
Northwestern’s +9.2 at home vs away over expected ranks 3rd of the 136 teams with 4 games on each side over their last 25 games.
carries a game over expected
at home
+5.7
away
−3.5
-10010
A +9.2 difference in carries over expected at home vs away is unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 2 times in 100.
plain
40.2
30.7
304050
A +9.5 difference in carries at home vs away is unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up once in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | @ Purdue | W | 29 | 32.9 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Ohio State (neutral) | L | 28 | 28.0 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Michigan | L | 24 | 27.6 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs Illinois (neutral) | L | 29 | 29.4 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Tulane | L | 27 | 32.2 | |
| Sep 5, 2025 | vsWWestern Illinois | W | 40 | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Oregon | L | 36 | 32.2 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs UCLA | W | 42 | 34.3 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Louisiana Monroe | W | 38 | 37.1 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Penn State | W | 39 | 32.6 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vsPurdue | W | 47 | 35.1 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Nebraska | L | 30 | 36.5 | |
| Nov 7, 2025 | @ USC | L | 25 | 33.9 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vsMichigan (neutral) | L | 26 | 34.3 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Minnesota (neutral) | W | 39 | 32.4 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @Illinois | L | 29 | 31.8 | |
| Dec 26, 2025 | vs Central Michigan (neutral) | W | 26 | 36.4 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsSSouth Dakota State | W | 31 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Colorado | W | 47 | 36.3 | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | @ Indiana | L | 26 | 38.0 | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | vsPenn State | W | 51 | 31.4 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Ball State | W | 30 | 41.9 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Michigan State | W | 42 | 38.1 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Rutgers | W | 40 | 37.4 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @Oregon | L | 36 | 38.8 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.1 in 2024, plus 0.3 in 2025, plus 0.6 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 73% in 2024, 74% in 2025, 61% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Western Illinois, South Dakota State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.