North Carolina’s third-down conversion rate with Benjamin Hall and without Benjamin Hall
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, North Carolina was 1.0 percentage points under with Benjamin Hall and 10.9 percentage points over without Benjamin Hall over its last 25 games, 17 games against 1. The plain averages are 39.0% and 52.9%, a difference of 14.0%. All 9 away games were with Benjamin Hall. All 14 day games were with Benjamin Hall. All 4 ranked opponents were with Benjamin Hall.
Benjamin Hall, running back: 570 rushing yards, 131 carries and 13 receptions in 18 of those 25 games.
One game without Benjamin Hall is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Benjamin Hall
−1.0%
without Benjamin Hall
+10.9%
-20%0%20%
plain
39.0%
52.9%
20%40%60%
The games
with Benjamin Hallwithout Benjamin Hall
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | @ Florida State | W | 68.8% | 36.4% | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Wake Forest | W | 40.0% | 41.8% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Boston College | L | 23.1% | 37.6% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs NC State | L | 21.4% | 37.0% | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | vs UConn (neutral) | L | 0.0% | 36.7% | |
| Sep 1, 2025 | vs TCU | L | 10.0% | 38.8% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Charlotte | W | 33.3% | 41.1% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Richmond | W | 54.5% | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ UCF | L | 38.5% | 36.0% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Clemson | L | 18.2% | 34.2% | |
| Oct 17, 2025 | @ California | L | 35.7% | 39.7% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Virginia | L | 33.3% | 30.3% | |
| Oct 31, 2025 | @ Syracuse | W | 30.8% | 37.8% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Stanford | W | 40.0% | 36.2% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @Wake Forest | L | 28.6% | 34.8% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Duke | L | 61.5% | 37.7% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @NC State | L | 53.8% | 38.0% | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | vsTCU (neutral) | W | 27.3% | 40.6% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs East Tennessee State | W | 55.6% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @Clemson | L | 35.7% | 36.4% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Notre Dame | L | 50.0% | 41.7% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Pittsburgh | W | 27.3% | 43.3% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Duke | W | 33.3% | 38.2% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsSyracuse | L | 52.9% | 42.0% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Miami (FL) | L | 72.7% | 41.7% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- Richmond, East Tennessee State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 19 of these 20 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- 5 games in 2024 are neither with Benjamin Hall nor without Benjamin Hall: Benjamin Hall had no game for the team that season, and sit out.