North Carolina’s third-down conversion rate with Benjamin Hall and without Benjamin Hall
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, North Carolina was 0.7 percentage points over with Benjamin Hall and 10.9 percentage points over without Benjamin Hall in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 43.1% and 52.9%, a difference of 9.8%. All 3 away games were with Benjamin Hall. All 6 day games were with Benjamin Hall. All 3 ranked opponents were with Benjamin Hall.
Benjamin Hall, running back: 296 rushing yards, 60 carries and 5 receptions in 7 games this season.
One game without Benjamin Hall is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Benjamin Hall
+0.7%
without Benjamin Hall
+10.9%
0%20%
plain
43.1%
52.9%
40%60%
The games
with Benjamin Hallwithout Benjamin Hall
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | vs TCU (neutral) | W | 27.3% | 40.6% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs East Tennessee State | W | 55.6% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Clemson | L | 35.7% | 36.4% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Notre Dame | L | 50.0% | 41.7% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Pittsburgh | W | 27.3% | 43.3% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Duke | W | 33.3% | 38.2% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Syracuse | L | 52.9% | 42.0% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Miami (FL) | L | 72.7% | 41.7% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- East Tennessee State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.