North Carolina’s points of margin with Melkart Abou Jaoude and without Melkart Abou Jaoude
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, North Carolina was 0.2 points under with Melkart Abou Jaoude and 12.2 points under without Melkart Abou Jaoude over its last 25 games, 17 games against 1. The plain averages are -3.6 and 12.0, a difference of 15.6. All 6 night games were with Melkart Abou Jaoude. All 4 ranked opponents were with Melkart Abou Jaoude. Both top-10 opponents were with Melkart Abou Jaoude.
Melkart Abou Jaoude, defender: 18 of those 25 games.
2 games without Melkart Abou Jaoude is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Melkart Abou Jaoude
−0.2
without Melkart Abou Jaoude
−12.2
-200
plain
-3.6
12.0
-20020
A −15.6 difference in points of margin with Melkart Abou Jaoude vs without Melkart Abou Jaoude is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Melkart Abou Jaoudewithout Melkart Abou Jaoude
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | @ Florida State | W | 24 | 0.0 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Wake Forest | W | 7 | 8.1 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Boston College | L | -20 | -4.1 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs NC State | L | -5 | 6.1 | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | vs UConn (neutral) | L | -13 | 5.4 | |
| Sep 1, 2025 | vs TCU | L | -34 | -9.7 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Charlotte | W | 17 | 10.4 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Richmond | W | 35 | — | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ UCF | L | -25 | -4.7 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Clemson | L | -28 | -8.6 | |
| Oct 17, 2025 | @ California | L | -3 | -7.6 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Virginia | L | -1 | -16.8 | |
| Oct 31, 2025 | @ Syracuse | W | 17 | -3.0 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Stanford | W | 5 | -2.7 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @Wake Forest | L | -16 | -13.8 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs Duke | L | -7 | -11.5 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @NC State | L | -23 | -16.2 | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | vsTCU (neutral) | W | 5 | 1.5 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs East Tennessee State | W | 32 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @Clemson | L | -8 | 4.2 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Notre Dame | L | -11 | -12.2 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Pittsburgh | W | 4 | -1.1 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Duke | W | 4 | -3.3 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsSyracuse | L | -1 | 16.6 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Miami (FL) | L | -3 | -13.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.1 in 2025, plus 3.7 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 87% in 2025, 79% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Richmond, East Tennessee State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 19 of these 20 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- 5 games in 2024 are neither with Melkart Abou Jaoude nor without Melkart Abou Jaoude: Melkart Abou Jaoude had no game for the team that season, and sit out.