North Carolina’s points of margin with Melkart Abou Jaoude and without Melkart Abou Jaoude
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, North Carolina was 1.7 points over with Melkart Abou Jaoude and 12.2 points under without Melkart Abou Jaoude in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are -0.3 and 12.0, a difference of 12.3. Both night games were with Melkart Abou Jaoude. All 3 ranked opponents were with Melkart Abou Jaoude. Both top-10 opponents were with Melkart Abou Jaoude.
Melkart Abou Jaoude, defender: 6 games this season.
2 games without Melkart Abou Jaoude is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Melkart Abou Jaoude
+1.7
without Melkart Abou Jaoude
−12.2
-10010
plain
-0.3
12.0
020
A −12.3 difference in points of margin with Melkart Abou Jaoude vs without Melkart Abou Jaoude is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Melkart Abou Jaoudewithout Melkart Abou Jaoude
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | vs TCU (neutral) | W | 5 | 1.6 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs East Tennessee State | W | 32 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Clemson | L | -8 | 4.2 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Notre Dame | L | -11 | -12.0 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Pittsburgh | W | 4 | -1.0 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Duke | W | 4 | -3.2 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Syracuse | L | -1 | 16.7 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Miami (FL) | L | -3 | -14.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- East Tennessee State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 8 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.