North Carolina’s points at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, North Carolina was 3.8 points over at home and 3.2 points under away in 2026, 3 games against 3. The plain averages are 31.5 and 21.7, a difference of 9.8. Both night games were at home. Both top-10 opponents were at home. Both nonconference games were at home.
3 games away is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
at home
+3.8
away
−3.2
-50510
A +7.1 difference in points over expected at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 19 times in 100.
plain
31.5
21.7
20253035
A +9.8 difference in points at home vs away is unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 5 times in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | vs TCU (neutral) | W | 15 | 21.2 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs East Tennessee State | W | 35 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Clemson | L | 20 | 24.9 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Notre Dame | L | 26 | 21.6 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Pittsburgh | W | 21 | 26.6 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Duke | W | 24 | 23.1 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Syracuse | L | 30 | 34.2 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Miami (FL) | L | 35 | 23.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.9 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- East Tennessee State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.