New Mexico State’s third-down conversion rate with Trey Hedden and since Trey Hedden’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, New Mexico State was 11.0 percentage points over with Trey Hedden and 11.9 percentage points under since Trey Hedden’s last game over its last 25 games, 3 games against 4. The plain averages are 48.9% and 27.1%, a difference of 21.8%. All 4 conference games were since Trey Hedden’s last game. All 4 nonconference games were with Trey Hedden.
Trey Hedden, quarterback: 906 passing yards, 124 pass attempts and 65 completions in 5 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +22.9% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Trey Hedden vs since Trey Hedden’s last game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Trey Hedden and it comes up 12 times in 100.
A +21.8% difference in third-down conversion rate with Trey Hedden vs since Trey Hedden’s last game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Trey Hedden and it comes up 8 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2024 | vs Florida International (neutral) | L | 25.0% | 36.1% | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs Western Kentucky | L | 56.3% | 39.8% | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ Texas A&M | L | 33.3% | 30.4% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Middle Tennessee | W | 58.3% | 43.0% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs UTEP | L | 43.5% | 36.7% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsBBryant | W | 25.0% | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Tulsa | W | 52.6% | 41.0% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Louisiana Tech | L | 11.1% | 43.2% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ New Mexico | L | 35.3% | 39.0% | |
| Oct 2, 2025 | vs Sam Houston | W | 69.2% | 41.7% | |
| Oct 14, 2025 | @ Liberty | L | 58.8% | 43.9% | |
| Oct 22, 2025 | vs Missouri State | L | 30.0% | 43.9% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @Western Kentucky | L | 27.8% | 40.8% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Kennesaw State | L | 44.4% | 39.8% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Tennessee | L | 42.1% | 38.8% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @UTEP | W | 50.0% | 33.0% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsMiddle Tennessee | L | 40.0% | 42.3% | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | @ Florida State | L | 58.8% | 33.5% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsMMercyhurst | W | 53.8% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Hawaii | L | 40.0% | 37.6% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsNew Mexico | L | 42.9% | 37.5% | |
| Oct 1, 2026 | vsWestern Kentucky | W | 16.7% | 38.0% | |
| Oct 7, 2026 | @Florida International | L | 25.0% | 35.7% | |
| Oct 21, 2026 | @Sam Houston | W | 16.7% | 39.0% | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | vs Jacksonville State | L | 50.0% | 43.2% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Mercyhurst has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Trey Hedden nor since Trey Hedden’s last game: Trey Hedden had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.