New Mexico State’s third-down conversion rate with Trey Hedden and since Trey Hedden’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, New Mexico State was 11.0 percentage points over with Trey Hedden and 11.9 percentage points under since Trey Hedden’s last game in 2026, 3 games against 4. The plain averages are 48.9% and 27.1%, a difference of 21.8%. All 4 conference games were since Trey Hedden’s last game. All 4 nonconference games were with Trey Hedden. All 4 first-half games were with Trey Hedden.
Trey Hedden, quarterback: 906 passing yards, 124 pass attempts and 65 completions in 5 games this season.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +22.9% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Trey Hedden vs since Trey Hedden’s last game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Trey Hedden and it comes up 12 times in 100.
A +21.8% difference in third-down conversion rate with Trey Hedden vs since Trey Hedden’s last game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Trey Hedden and it comes up 8 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | @ Florida State | L | 58.8% | 33.5% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsMMercyhurst | W | 53.8% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Hawaii | L | 40.0% | 37.6% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs New Mexico | L | 42.9% | 37.5% | |
| Oct 1, 2026 | vs Western Kentucky | W | 16.7% | 38.0% | |
| Oct 7, 2026 | @ Florida International | L | 25.0% | 35.7% | |
| Oct 21, 2026 | @ Sam Houston | W | 16.7% | 39.0% | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | vs Jacksonville State | L | 50.0% | 43.2% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Mercyhurst has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.