New Mexico State’s third-down conversion rate with TK King and without TK King
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, New Mexico State was 1.2 percentage points over with TK King and 4.3 percentage points under without TK King over its last 25 games, 14 games against 4. The plain averages are 41.1% and 34.8%, a difference of 6.3%.
TK King, receiver: 895 receiving yards, 64 receptions and 6 receiving touchdowns in 15 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with TK King
+1.2%
without TK King
−4.3%
-20%0%20%
A +5.5% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with TK King vs without TK King is about what you’d expect.
plain
41.1%
34.8%
20%40%60%
A +6.3% difference in third-down conversion rate with TK King vs without TK King is about what you’d expect.
The games
with TK Kingwithout TK King
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2024 | vs Florida International (neutral) | L | 25.0% | 36.1% | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs Western Kentucky | L | 56.3% | 39.8% | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ Texas A&M | L | 33.3% | 30.4% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Middle Tennessee | W | 58.3% | 43.0% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs UTEP | L | 43.5% | 36.7% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsBBryant | W | 25.0% | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Tulsa | W | 52.6% | 41.0% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Louisiana Tech | L | 11.1% | 43.2% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ New Mexico | L | 35.3% | 39.0% | |
| Oct 2, 2025 | vs Sam Houston | W | 69.2% | 41.7% | |
| Oct 14, 2025 | @ Liberty | L | 58.8% | 43.9% | |
| Oct 22, 2025 | vs Missouri State | L | 30.0% | 43.9% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @Western Kentucky | L | 27.8% | 40.8% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Kennesaw State | L | 44.4% | 39.8% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Tennessee | L | 42.1% | 38.8% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @UTEP | W | 50.0% | 33.0% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsMiddle Tennessee | L | 40.0% | 42.3% | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | @ Florida State | L | 58.8% | 33.5% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsMMercyhurst | W | 53.8% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Hawaii | L | 40.0% | 37.6% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsNew Mexico | L | 42.9% | 37.5% | |
| Oct 1, 2026 | vsWestern Kentucky | W | 16.7% | 38.0% | |
| Oct 7, 2026 | @Florida International | L | 25.0% | 35.7% | |
| Oct 21, 2026 | @Sam Houston | W | 16.7% | 39.0% | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | vs Jacksonville State | L | 50.0% | 43.2% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Bryant, Mercyhurst have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 5 games in 2024 are neither with TK King nor without TK King: TK King had no game for the team that season, and sit out.