New Mexico State’s third-down conversion rate with TK King and since TK King’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, New Mexico State was 3.6 percentage points under with TK King and 6.8 percentage points over since TK King’s last game in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 36.3% and 50.0%, a difference of 13.7%. All 4 away games were with TK King. All 3 night games were with TK King. All 4 nonconference games were with TK King.
TK King, receiver: 307 receiving yards, 23 receptions and 3 receiving touchdowns in 7 games this season.
One game since TK King’s last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with TK King
−3.6%
since TK King’s last game
+6.8%
-20%0%20%
plain
36.3%
50.0%
20%40%
The games
with TK Kingsince TK King’s last game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | @ Florida State | L | 58.8% | 33.5% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsMMercyhurst | W | 53.8% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Hawaii | L | 40.0% | 37.6% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs New Mexico | L | 42.9% | 37.5% | |
| Oct 1, 2026 | vs Western Kentucky | W | 16.7% | 38.0% | |
| Oct 7, 2026 | @ Florida International | L | 25.0% | 35.7% | |
| Oct 21, 2026 | @ Sam Houston | W | 16.7% | 39.0% | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | vs Jacksonville State | L | 50.0% | 43.2% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Mercyhurst has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.