New Mexico State’s third-down conversion rate with Isaiah Rudison and without Isaiah Rudison
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, New Mexico State was 0.2 percentage points under with Isaiah Rudison and 8.4 percentage points over without Isaiah Rudison over its last 25 games, 19 games against 4. The plain averages are 40.4% and 39.7%, a difference of 0.7%. Expected was 5.0 percentage points higher with Isaiah Rudison than without Isaiah Rudison.
Isaiah Rudison, running back: 176 rushing yards, 45 carries and 11 receptions in 16 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Isaiah Rudison
−0.2%
without Isaiah Rudison
+8.4%
-20%0%20%
A −8.6% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Isaiah Rudison vs without Isaiah Rudison is about what you’d expect.
plain
40.4%
39.7%
20%40%60%
A +0.7% difference in third-down conversion rate with Isaiah Rudison vs without Isaiah Rudison is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Isaiah Rudisonwithout Isaiah Rudison
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2024 | vs Florida International (neutral) | L | 25.0% | 36.1% | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs Western Kentucky | L | 56.3% | 39.8% | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ Texas A&M | L | 33.3% | 30.4% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Middle Tennessee | W | 58.3% | 43.0% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs UTEP | L | 43.5% | 36.7% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsBBryant | W | 25.0% | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Tulsa | W | 52.6% | 41.0% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Louisiana Tech | L | 11.1% | 43.2% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ New Mexico | L | 35.3% | 39.0% | |
| Oct 2, 2025 | vs Sam Houston | W | 69.2% | 41.7% | |
| Oct 14, 2025 | @ Liberty | L | 58.8% | 43.9% | |
| Oct 22, 2025 | vs Missouri State | L | 30.0% | 43.9% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @Western Kentucky | L | 27.8% | 40.8% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Kennesaw State | L | 44.4% | 39.8% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Tennessee | L | 42.1% | 38.8% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @UTEP | W | 50.0% | 33.0% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsMiddle Tennessee | L | 40.0% | 42.3% | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | @ Florida State | L | 58.8% | 33.5% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsMMercyhurst | W | 53.8% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Hawaii | L | 40.0% | 37.6% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsNew Mexico | L | 42.9% | 37.5% | |
| Oct 1, 2026 | vsWestern Kentucky | W | 16.7% | 38.0% | |
| Oct 7, 2026 | @Florida International | L | 25.0% | 35.7% | |
| Oct 21, 2026 | @Sam Houston | W | 16.7% | 39.0% | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | vs Jacksonville State | L | 50.0% | 43.2% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6% in 2024, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 50% in 2024, 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Bryant, Mercyhurst have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 20 of these 25 games; in the other 5 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.