New Mexico State’s third-down conversion rate with Adam Damante and without Adam Damante
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, New Mexico State was 3.9 percentage points under with Adam Damante and 2.4 percentage points over without Adam Damante over its last 25 games, 7 games against 11. The plain averages are 34.5% and 42.2%, a difference of 7.8%. Both opponents outside the major colleges were without Adam Damante.
Adam Damante, quarterback: 1,349 passing yards, 222 pass attempts and 138 completions in 10 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Adam Damante
−3.9%
without Adam Damante
+2.4%
-20%0%20%
A −6.4% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Adam Damante vs without Adam Damante is about what you’d expect.
plain
34.5%
42.2%
20%40%60%
A −7.8% difference in third-down conversion rate with Adam Damante vs without Adam Damante is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Adam Damantewithout Adam Damante
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2024 | vs Florida International (neutral) | L | 25.0% | 36.1% | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs Western Kentucky | L | 56.3% | 39.8% | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ Texas A&M | L | 33.3% | 30.4% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Middle Tennessee | W | 58.3% | 43.0% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs UTEP | L | 43.5% | 36.7% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsBBryant | W | 25.0% | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Tulsa | W | 52.6% | 41.0% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Louisiana Tech | L | 11.1% | 43.2% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ New Mexico | L | 35.3% | 39.0% | |
| Oct 2, 2025 | vs Sam Houston | W | 69.2% | 41.7% | |
| Oct 14, 2025 | @ Liberty | L | 58.8% | 43.9% | |
| Oct 22, 2025 | vs Missouri State | L | 30.0% | 43.9% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @Western Kentucky | L | 27.8% | 40.8% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Kennesaw State | L | 44.4% | 39.8% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Tennessee | L | 42.1% | 38.8% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @UTEP | W | 50.0% | 33.0% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsMiddle Tennessee | L | 40.0% | 42.3% | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | @ Florida State | L | 58.8% | 33.5% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsMMercyhurst | W | 53.8% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Hawaii | L | 40.0% | 37.6% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsNew Mexico | L | 42.9% | 37.5% | |
| Oct 1, 2026 | vsWestern Kentucky | W | 16.7% | 38.0% | |
| Oct 7, 2026 | @Florida International | L | 25.0% | 35.7% | |
| Oct 21, 2026 | @Sam Houston | W | 16.7% | 39.0% | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | vs Jacksonville State | L | 50.0% | 43.2% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Bryant, Mercyhurst have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 5 games in 2024 are neither with Adam Damante nor without Adam Damante: Adam Damante had no game for the team that season, and sit out.