New Mexico State’s points with Isaiah Rudison and without Isaiah Rudison
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, New Mexico State was 0.8 points under with Isaiah Rudison and 3.5 points under without Isaiah Rudison over its last 25 games, 19 games against 4. The plain averages are 23.3 and 16.0, a difference of 7.3.
Isaiah Rudison, running back: 176 rushing yards, 45 carries and 11 receptions in 16 of those 25 games.
points a game over expected
with Isaiah Rudison
−0.8
without Isaiah Rudison
−3.5
-20-10010
A +2.7 difference in points over expected with Isaiah Rudison vs without Isaiah Rudison is about what you’d expect.
plain
23.3
16.0
02040
A +7.3 difference in points with Isaiah Rudison vs without Isaiah Rudison is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Isaiah Rudison and it comes up 11 times in 100.
The games
with Isaiah Rudisonwithout Isaiah Rudison
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2024 | vs Florida International (neutral) | L | 13 | 22.8 | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs Western Kentucky | L | 28 | 22.3 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ Texas A&M | L | 3 | 12.4 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Middle Tennessee | W | 36 | 26.4 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs UTEP | L | 35 | 29.2 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsBBryant | W | 19 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Tulsa | W | 21 | 26.4 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Louisiana Tech | L | 14 | 18.7 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ New Mexico | L | 20 | 13.7 | |
| Oct 2, 2025 | vs Sam Houston | W | 37 | 30.2 | |
| Oct 14, 2025 | @ Liberty | L | 27 | 21.3 | |
| Oct 22, 2025 | vs Missouri State | L | 17 | 26.3 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @Western Kentucky | L | 16 | 20.5 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Kennesaw State | L | 21 | 22.9 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Tennessee | L | 9 | 18.4 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @UTEP | W | 34 | 23.6 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsMiddle Tennessee | L | 24 | 28.1 | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | @ Florida State | L | 17 | 17.7 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsMMercyhurst | W | 51 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Hawaii | L | 19 | 20.2 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsNew Mexico | L | 18 | 13.8 | |
| Oct 1, 2026 | vsWestern Kentucky | W | 34 | 25.8 | |
| Oct 7, 2026 | @Florida International | L | 3 | 21.1 | |
| Oct 21, 2026 | @Sam Houston | W | 30 | 17.9 | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | vs Jacksonville State | L | 0 | 26.2 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.5 in 2024, plus 1.5 in 2025, plus 1.9 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 75% in 2024, 78% in 2025, 66% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Bryant, Mercyhurst have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 20 of these 25 games; in the other 5 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.