New Mexico State’s points of margin with Trey Hedden and since Trey Hedden’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, New Mexico State was 1.2 points under with Trey Hedden and 2.7 points under since Trey Hedden’s last game in 2026, 3 games against 4. The plain averages are -3.5 and -4.0, a difference of 0.5. Expected was 14.5 points lower with Trey Hedden than since Trey Hedden’s last game. All 4 conference games were since Trey Hedden’s last game. All 4 nonconference games were with Trey Hedden. All 4 first-half games were with Trey Hedden.
Trey Hedden, quarterback: 906 passing yards, 124 pass attempts and 65 completions in 5 games this season.
points of margin a game over expected
A +1.5 difference in points of margin over expected with Trey Hedden vs since Trey Hedden’s last game is about what you’d expect.
A +0.5 difference in points of margin with Trey Hedden vs since Trey Hedden’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | @ Florida State | L | -17 | -25.3 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsMMercyhurst | W | 37 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Hawaii | L | -10 | -5.2 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs New Mexico | L | -24 | -16.8 | |
| Oct 1, 2026 | vs Western Kentucky | W | 21 | 0.8 | |
| Oct 7, 2026 | @ Florida International | L | -19 | -4.4 | |
| Oct 21, 2026 | @ Sam Houston | W | 6 | -0.5 | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | vs Jacksonville State | L | -24 | -1.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Mercyhurst has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.