New Mexico State’s points of margin with TK King and since TK King’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, New Mexico State was 1.4 points over with TK King and 23.0 points under since TK King’s last game in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are -0.9 and -24.0, a difference of 23.1. All 4 away games were with TK King. All 3 night games were with TK King. All 4 nonconference games were with TK King.
TK King, receiver: 307 receiving yards, 23 receptions and 3 receiving touchdowns in 7 games this season.
One game since TK King’s last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with TK King
+1.4
since TK King’s last game
−23.0
-20020
plain
-0.9
-24.0
-20020
The games
with TK Kingsince TK King’s last game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | @ Florida State | L | -17 | -25.3 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsMMercyhurst | W | 37 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Hawaii | L | -10 | -5.2 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs New Mexico | L | -24 | -16.8 | |
| Oct 1, 2026 | vs Western Kentucky | W | 21 | 0.8 | |
| Oct 7, 2026 | @ Florida International | L | -19 | -4.4 | |
| Oct 21, 2026 | @ Sam Houston | W | 6 | -0.5 | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | vs Jacksonville State | L | -24 | -1.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- Mercyhurst has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.