New Mexico State’s points of margin with Adam Damante and without Adam Damante
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, New Mexico State was 3.6 points under with Adam Damante and 1.7 points over without Adam Damante in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are -8.0 and 3.3, a difference of 11.3. All 4 conference games were with Adam Damante. Both games after a bye were with Adam Damante. All 4 second-half games were with Adam Damante.
Adam Damante, quarterback: 638 passing yards, 118 pass attempts and 68 completions in 6 games this season.
3 games without Adam Damante is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A −5.4 difference in points of margin over expected with Adam Damante vs without Adam Damante is about what you’d expect.
A −11.3 difference in points of margin with Adam Damante vs without Adam Damante is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | @ Florida State | L | -17 | -25.3 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsMMercyhurst | W | 37 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Hawaii | L | -10 | -5.2 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs New Mexico | L | -24 | -16.8 | |
| Oct 1, 2026 | vs Western Kentucky | W | 21 | 0.8 | |
| Oct 7, 2026 | @ Florida International | L | -19 | -4.4 | |
| Oct 21, 2026 | @ Sam Houston | W | 6 | -0.5 | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | vs Jacksonville State | L | -24 | -1.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Mercyhurst has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.