New Mexico State’s carries with TK King and since TK King’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, New Mexico State was 1.3 carries under with TK King and 2.4 carries under since TK King’s last game in 2026, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 32.3 and 34.0, a difference of 1.7. Expected was 4.1 carries lower with TK King than since TK King’s last game. All 4 away games were with TK King. All 3 night games were with TK King. All 4 nonconference games were with TK King.
TK King, receiver: 307 receiving yards, 23 receptions and 3 receiving touchdowns in 7 games this season, 1% of New Mexico State’s carries in those games.
One game since TK King’s last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
with TK King
−1.3
since TK King’s last game
−2.4
-100
plain
32.3
34.0
25303540
The games
with TK Kingsince TK King’s last game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | @ Florida State | L | 23 | 33.7 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsMMercyhurst | W | 40 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Hawaii | L | 29 | 33.1 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs New Mexico | L | 31 | 31.0 | |
| Oct 1, 2026 | vs Western Kentucky | W | 33 | 33.0 | |
| Oct 7, 2026 | @ Florida International | L | 28 | 30.3 | |
| Oct 21, 2026 | @ Sam Houston | W | 42 | 32.5 | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | vs Jacksonville State | L | 34 | 36.4 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- Mercyhurst has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.