New Mexico State’s carries with Adam Damante and without Adam Damante
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, New Mexico State was 1.0 carries over with Adam Damante and 3.1 carries under without Adam Damante over its last 25 games, 7 games against 11. The plain averages are 33.1 and 29.1, a difference of 4.1. Both opponents outside the major colleges were without Adam Damante.
Adam Damante, quarterback: 1,349 passing yards, 222 pass attempts and 138 completions in 10 of those 25 games, 9% of New Mexico State’s carries in those games.
carries a game over expected
with Adam Damante
+1.0
without Adam Damante
−3.1
-100
A +4.1 difference in carries over expected with Adam Damante vs without Adam Damante is about what you’d expect.
plain
33.1
29.1
203040
A +4.1 difference in carries with Adam Damante vs without Adam Damante is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Adam Damantewithout Adam Damante
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2024 | vs Florida International (neutral) | L | 43 | 40.1 | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs Western Kentucky | L | 55 | 40.8 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ Texas A&M | L | 37 | 34.1 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Middle Tennessee | W | 36 | 41.0 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs UTEP | L | 56 | 38.9 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsBBryant | W | 30 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Tulsa | W | 26 | 34.7 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Louisiana Tech | L | 16 | 29.1 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @ New Mexico | L | 30 | 26.1 | |
| Oct 2, 2025 | vs Sam Houston | W | 31 | 33.9 | |
| Oct 14, 2025 | @ Liberty | L | 37 | 29.0 | |
| Oct 22, 2025 | vs Missouri State | L | 25 | 28.9 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @Western Kentucky | L | 25 | 31.7 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Kennesaw State | L | 36 | 31.2 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Tennessee | L | 30 | 31.0 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @UTEP | W | 39 | 32.1 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsMiddle Tennessee | L | 25 | 29.6 | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | @ Florida State | L | 23 | 33.7 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsMMercyhurst | W | 40 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Hawaii | L | 29 | 33.1 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsNew Mexico | L | 31 | 31.0 | |
| Oct 1, 2026 | vsWestern Kentucky | W | 33 | 33.0 | |
| Oct 7, 2026 | @Florida International | L | 28 | 30.3 | |
| Oct 21, 2026 | @Sam Houston | W | 42 | 32.5 | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | vs Jacksonville State | L | 34 | 36.4 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.3 in 2025, plus 0.6 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 74% in 2025, 61% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Bryant, Mercyhurst have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 5 games in 2024 are neither with Adam Damante nor without Adam Damante: Adam Damante had no game for the team that season, and sit out.