New Mexico State’s points at home and away
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, New Mexico State was 4.6 points under at home and 1.9 points under away in 2026, 3 games against 4. The plain averages are 25.8 and 17.3, a difference of 8.5.
points a game over expected
at home
−4.6
away
−1.9
-20-10010
A −2.7 difference in points over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
25.8
17.3
02040
A +8.5 difference in points at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | @ Florida State | L | 17 | 17.7 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsMMercyhurst | W | 51 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Hawaii | L | 19 | 20.1 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs New Mexico | L | 18 | 13.6 | |
| Oct 1, 2026 | vs Western Kentucky | W | 34 | 25.9 | |
| Oct 7, 2026 | @ Florida International | L | 3 | 21.0 | |
| Oct 21, 2026 | @ Sam Houston | W | 30 | 18.0 | |
| Oct 28, 2026 | vs Jacksonville State | L | 0 | 26.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.8 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Mercyhurst has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.