Nevada’s third-down conversion rate with Luke Duncan and without Luke Duncan
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Nevada was 12.0 percentage points over with Luke Duncan and 2.7 percentage points under without Luke Duncan over its last 25 games, 1 game against 5. The plain averages are 50.0% and 36.8%, a difference of 13.2%. All 4 away games were without Luke Duncan. All 5 night games were without Luke Duncan. Both opponents outside the major colleges were without Luke Duncan.
Luke Duncan, quarterback: 265 passing yards, 55 pass attempts and 26 completions in 4 of those 25 games.
One game with Luke Duncan is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Luke Duncan
+12.0%
without Luke Duncan
−2.7%
-10%0%10%
plain
50.0%
36.8%
35%40%45%50%
The games
with Luke Duncanwithout Luke Duncan
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2024 | @ Hawaii | L | 41.7% | 40.5% | |
| Nov 2, 2024 | vs Colorado State | L | 27.3% | 42.5% | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Boise State | L | 21.4% | 39.7% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Air Force | L | 33.3% | 40.7% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ UNLV | L | 18.2% | 37.0% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Penn State | L | 36.4% | 34.7% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsSSacramento State | W | 33.3% | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Middle Tennessee | L | 23.1% | 40.4% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Western Kentucky | L | 31.3% | 36.4% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Fresno State | L | 50.0% | 33.1% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs San Diego State | L | 21.4% | 34.3% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ New Mexico | L | 38.5% | 34.5% | |
| Oct 24, 2025 | vsBoise State | L | 33.3% | 32.3% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Utah State | L | 23.1% | 36.2% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs San Jose State | W | 36.4% | 35.1% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Wyoming | W | 30.8% | 33.6% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsUNLV | L | 23.1% | 33.1% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsWestern Kentucky | W | 50.0% | 35.3% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Montana State | L | 30.8% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @Middle Tennessee | L | 38.5% | 39.2% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsAir Force | L | 33.3% | 42.8% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ UTEP | W | 30.8% | 47.5% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @NNorth Dakota State | L | 42.9% | — | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsSan Jose State | W | 50.0% | 38.0% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ UCLA | L | 31.3% | 32.6% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Montana State, North Dakota State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Luke Duncan nor without Luke Duncan: Luke Duncan had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.