Nevada’s third-down conversion rate with Luke Duncan and without Luke Duncan
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Nevada was 12.0 percentage points over with Luke Duncan and 2.7 percentage points under without Luke Duncan in 2026, 1 game against 5. The plain averages are 50.0% and 36.8%, a difference of 13.2%. All 4 away games were without Luke Duncan. All 5 night games were without Luke Duncan. Both opponents outside the major colleges were without Luke Duncan.
Luke Duncan, quarterback: 265 passing yards, 55 pass attempts and 26 completions in 4 games this season.
One game with Luke Duncan is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Luke Duncan
+12.0%
without Luke Duncan
−2.7%
-10%0%10%
plain
50.0%
36.8%
35%40%45%50%
The games
with Luke Duncanwithout Luke Duncan
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Western Kentucky | W | 50.0% | 35.3% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Montana State | L | 30.8% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Middle Tennessee | L | 38.5% | 39.2% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Air Force | L | 33.3% | 42.8% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ UTEP | W | 30.8% | 47.5% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @NNorth Dakota State | L | 42.9% | — | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs San Jose State | W | 50.0% | 38.0% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ UCLA | L | 31.3% | 32.6% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Montana State, North Dakota State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.