Nevada’s pass attempts with Luke Duncan and without Luke Duncan
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Nevada was 2.0 pass attempts over with Luke Duncan and 3.1 pass attempts under without Luke Duncan in 2026, 1 game against 5. The plain averages are 31.0 and 27.1, a difference of 3.9. All 4 away games were without Luke Duncan. All 5 night games were without Luke Duncan. Both opponents outside the major colleges were without Luke Duncan.
Luke Duncan, quarterback: 265 passing yards, 55 pass attempts and 26 completions in 4 games this season, 43% of Nevada’s pass attempts in those games.
One game with Luke Duncan is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
pass attempts a game over expected
with Luke Duncan
+2.0
without Luke Duncan
−3.1
-10-50
plain
31.0
27.1
20253035
The games
with Luke Duncanwithout Luke Duncan
| Side | Date | Game | Result | pass attempts | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Western Kentucky | W | 16 | 28.9 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Montana State | L | 36 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Middle Tennessee | L | 25 | 24.0 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Air Force | L | 31 | 27.3 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ UTEP | W | 22 | 25.5 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @NNorth Dakota State | L | 36 | — | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs San Jose State | W | 31 | 29.0 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ UCLA | L | 24 | 27.7 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.1 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 60% of the difference the model predicts.
- Montana State, North Dakota State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.