Nevada’s carries with Luke Duncan and without Luke Duncan
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Nevada was 3.3 carries under with Luke Duncan and 2.4 carries over without Luke Duncan over its last 25 games, 1 game against 5. The plain averages are 39.0 and 35.6, a difference of 3.4. Expected was 6.0 carries higher with Luke Duncan than without Luke Duncan. All 4 away games were without Luke Duncan. All 5 night games were without Luke Duncan. Both opponents outside the major colleges were without Luke Duncan.
Luke Duncan, quarterback: 265 passing yards, 55 pass attempts and 26 completions in 4 of those 25 games, 2% of Nevada’s carries in those games.
One game with Luke Duncan is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
with Luke Duncan
−3.3
without Luke Duncan
+2.4
-50510
plain
39.0
35.6
3040
The games
with Luke Duncanwithout Luke Duncan
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2024 | @ Hawaii | L | 28 | 36.6 | |
| Nov 2, 2024 | vs Colorado State | L | 38 | 34.9 | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Boise State | L | 30 | 32.5 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Air Force | L | 25 | 34.1 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ UNLV | L | 28 | 35.3 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Penn State | L | 31 | 33.0 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsSSacramento State | W | 47 | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Middle Tennessee | L | 35 | 34.2 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Western Kentucky | L | 39 | 35.7 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Fresno State | L | 34 | 32.8 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs San Diego State | L | 33 | 36.2 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ New Mexico | L | 28 | 32.6 | |
| Oct 24, 2025 | vsBoise State | L | 23 | 32.5 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Utah State | L | 32 | 35.2 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs San Jose State | W | 42 | 35.0 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Wyoming | W | 39 | 33.5 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsUNLV | L | 33 | 33.1 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsWestern Kentucky | W | 40 | 38.5 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Montana State | L | 35 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @Middle Tennessee | L | 34 | 39.4 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsAir Force | L | 35 | 30.2 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ UTEP | W | 49 | 36.3 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @NNorth Dakota State | L | 21 | — | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vsSan Jose State | W | 39 | 42.3 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ UCLA | L | 35 | 36.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- Montana State, North Dakota State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Luke Duncan nor without Luke Duncan: Luke Duncan had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.