NC State’s third-down conversion rate with Jayden Scott and without Jayden Scott
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, NC State was 2.2 percentage points over with Jayden Scott and 1.8 percentage points under without Jayden Scott over its last 25 games, 16 games against 7. The plain averages are 44.5% and 38.9%, a difference of 5.6%. All 3 ranked opponents were with Jayden Scott. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with Jayden Scott.
Jayden Scott, running back: 953 rushing yards, 168 carries and 18 receptions in 18 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +4.0% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Jayden Scott vs without Jayden Scott is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Jayden Scott and it comes up 10 times in 100.
A +5.6% difference in third-down conversion rate with Jayden Scott vs without Jayden Scott is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Jayden Scott and it comes up 10 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs Duke | L | 20.0% | 37.4% | |
| Nov 21, 2024 | @ Georgia Tech | L | 41.7% | 33.6% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ North Carolina | W | 22.2% | 37.8% | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | vs East Carolina (neutral) | L | 41.7% | 41.2% | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | vsEast Carolina | W | 46.7% | 38.3% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Virginia | W | 14.3% | 36.7% | |
| Sep 11, 2025 | @ Wake Forest | W | 38.9% | 38.1% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @Duke | L | 58.3% | 41.6% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Virginia Tech | L | 42.9% | 44.5% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vsCCampbell | W | 42.9% | — | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Notre Dame | L | 31.3% | 36.5% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Pittsburgh | L | 30.8% | 38.2% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vsGeorgia Tech | W | 63.6% | 41.6% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Miami (FL) | L | 27.3% | 34.4% | |
| Nov 21, 2025 | vs Florida State | W | 43.8% | 42.7% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsNorth Carolina | W | 50.0% | 43.3% | |
| Dec 19, 2025 | vs Memphis (neutral) | W | 38.5% | 42.9% | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | @Virginia | L | 30.8% | 42.6% | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | vs Richmond | W | 80.0% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Vanderbilt | L | 43.8% | 44.5% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Appalachian State | W | 64.7% | 40.8% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Louisville | W | 52.9% | 36.5% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsWake Forest | L | 42.9% | 43.3% | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | @ Stanford | L | 57.1% | 47.3% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs California | W | 46.7% | 44.4% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6% in 2024, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 50% in 2024, 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Campbell, Richmond have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 21 of these 25 games; in the other 4 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.