NC State’s third-down conversion rate with Jayden Scott and since Jayden Scott’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, NC State was 6.9 percentage points over with Jayden Scott and 3.9 percentage points over since Jayden Scott’s last game in 2026, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 54.4% and 48.9%, a difference of 5.5%. All 3 nonconference games were with Jayden Scott. All 4 first-half games were with Jayden Scott.
Jayden Scott, running back: 358 rushing yards, 62 carries and 3 receptions in 5 games this season.
3 games since Jayden Scott’s last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +3.0% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Jayden Scott vs since Jayden Scott’s last game is about what you’d expect.
A +5.5% difference in third-down conversion rate with Jayden Scott vs since Jayden Scott’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | @ Virginia | L | 30.8% | 42.6% | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | vs Richmond | W | 80.0% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Vanderbilt | L | 43.8% | 44.5% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Appalachian State | W | 64.7% | 40.8% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Louisville | W | 52.9% | 36.5% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Wake Forest | L | 42.9% | 43.3% | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | @ Stanford | L | 57.1% | 47.3% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs California | W | 46.7% | 44.4% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Richmond has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.