NC State’s rushing yards with Jayden Scott and since Jayden Scott’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, NC State was 17.2 yards over with Jayden Scott and 50.3 yards under since Jayden Scott’s last game in 2026, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 202.2 and 91.7, a difference of 110.5. All 3 nonconference games were with Jayden Scott. All 4 first-half games were with Jayden Scott.
Jayden Scott, running back: 358 rushing yards, 62 carries and 3 receptions in 5 games this season, 35% of NC State’s rushing yards in those games.
3 games since Jayden Scott’s last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
rushing yards a game over expected
A +67.5 difference in rushing yards over expected with Jayden Scott vs since Jayden Scott’s last game is about what you’d expect.
A +110.5 difference in rushing yards with Jayden Scott vs since Jayden Scott’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | rushing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | @ Virginia | L | 76 | 146.5 | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | vs Richmond | W | 428 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Vanderbilt | L | 167 | 110.2 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Appalachian State | W | 210 | 122.3 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Louisville | W | 130 | 135.2 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Wake Forest | L | 15 | 108.5 | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | @ Stanford | L | 125 | 153.3 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs California | W | 135 | 164.2 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 8.0 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 60% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Richmond has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.