NC State’s points of margin with Jamel Johnson and without Jamel Johnson
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, NC State was 1.6 points under with Jamel Johnson and 3.6 points over without Jamel Johnson over its last 25 games, 14 games against 5. The plain averages are -0.7 and 16.7, a difference of 17.3. All 3 ranked opponents were with Jamel Johnson.
Jamel Johnson, defender: 11 of those 25 games.
points of margin a game over expected
with Jamel Johnson
−1.6
without Jamel Johnson
+3.6
-20020
A −5.2 difference in points of margin over expected with Jamel Johnson vs without Jamel Johnson is about what you’d expect.
plain
-0.7
16.7
050
A −17.3 difference in points of margin with Jamel Johnson vs without Jamel Johnson is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Jamel Johnsonwithout Jamel Johnson
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs Duke | L | -10 | -0.4 | |
| Nov 21, 2024 | @ Georgia Tech | L | -1 | -12.7 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ North Carolina | W | 5 | -6.1 | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | vs East Carolina (neutral) | L | -5 | 6.4 | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | vsEast Carolina | W | 7 | 3.8 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Virginia | W | 4 | -0.7 | |
| Sep 11, 2025 | @ Wake Forest | W | 10 | -1.3 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @Duke | L | -12 | -0.2 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Virginia Tech | L | -2 | 15.2 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vsCCampbell | W | 46 | — | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Notre Dame | L | -29 | -20.9 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Pittsburgh | L | -19 | -2.1 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vsGeorgia Tech | W | 12 | 2.0 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Miami (FL) | L | -34 | -17.5 | |
| Nov 21, 2025 | vs Florida State | W | 10 | -1.9 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsNorth Carolina | W | 23 | 16.2 | |
| Dec 19, 2025 | vs Memphis (neutral) | W | 24 | 1.8 | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | @Virginia | L | -26 | -0.5 | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | vs Richmond | W | 73 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Vanderbilt | L | -4 | -6.6 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Appalachian State | W | 10 | 8.0 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Louisville | W | 3 | -16.1 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsWake Forest | L | -24 | -15.5 | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | @ Stanford | L | -3 | 6.5 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs California | W | 21 | 5.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.1 in 2025, plus 3.7 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 87% in 2025, 79% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Campbell, Richmond have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 4 games in 2024 are neither with Jamel Johnson nor without Jamel Johnson: Jamel Johnson had no game for the team that season, and sit out.