NC State’s points of margin with Jamel Johnson and without Jamel Johnson
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, NC State was 3.7 points over with Jamel Johnson and 11.5 points under without Jamel Johnson in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 1.4 and 14.3, a difference of 12.9. All 4 second-half games were with Jamel Johnson.
Jamel Johnson, defender: 2 games this season.
3 games without Jamel Johnson is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Jamel Johnson
+3.7
without Jamel Johnson
−11.5
-200
A +15.2 difference in points of margin over expected with Jamel Johnson vs without Jamel Johnson is about what you’d expect.
plain
1.4
14.3
050
A −12.9 difference in points of margin with Jamel Johnson vs without Jamel Johnson is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Jamel Johnsonwithout Jamel Johnson
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | @ Virginia | L | -26 | -0.5 | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | vs Richmond | W | 73 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Vanderbilt | L | -4 | -6.6 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Appalachian State | W | 10 | 8.0 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Louisville | W | 3 | -16.1 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Wake Forest | L | -24 | -15.5 | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | @ Stanford | L | -3 | 6.5 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs California | W | 21 | 5.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Richmond has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.