NC State’s points allowed with Jayden Scott and without Jayden Scott
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, NC State was 1.4 points over with Jayden Scott and 2.9 points under without Jayden Scott over its last 25 games, 16 games against 7. The plain averages are 26.7 and 27.7, a difference of 1.0. Expected was 2.6 points lower with Jayden Scott than without Jayden Scott. All 3 ranked opponents were with Jayden Scott. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with Jayden Scott.
Jayden Scott, running back: 953 rushing yards, 168 carries and 18 receptions in 18 of those 25 games.
points allowed a game over expected
A +4.3 difference in points allowed over expected with Jayden Scott vs without Jayden Scott is about what you’d expect.
A −1.0 difference in points allowed with Jayden Scott vs without Jayden Scott is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs Duke | L | 29 | 29.5 | |
| Nov 21, 2024 | @ Georgia Tech | L | 30 | 33.7 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ North Carolina | W | 30 | 34.7 | |
| Dec 28, 2024 | vs East Carolina (neutral) | L | 26 | 29.1 | |
| Aug 28, 2025 | vsEast Carolina | W | 17 | 26.3 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Virginia | W | 31 | 25.2 | |
| Sep 11, 2025 | @ Wake Forest | W | 24 | 26.1 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @Duke | L | 45 | 32.5 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Virginia Tech | L | 23 | 22.2 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vsCCampbell | W | 10 | — | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Notre Dame | L | 36 | 40.9 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Pittsburgh | L | 53 | 28.9 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vsGeorgia Tech | W | 36 | 25.8 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Miami (FL) | L | 41 | 32.6 | |
| Nov 21, 2025 | vs Florida State | W | 11 | 31.4 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsNorth Carolina | W | 19 | 16.3 | |
| Dec 19, 2025 | vs Memphis (neutral) | W | 7 | 28.8 | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | @Virginia | L | 34 | 24.7 | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | vs Richmond | W | 0 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Vanderbilt | L | 35 | 28.8 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Appalachian State | W | 31 | 20.2 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Louisville | W | 28 | 38.0 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsWake Forest | L | 38 | 34.2 | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | @ Stanford | L | 31 | 26.1 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs California | W | 10 | 27.2 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 1.5 in 2024, minus 1.5 in 2025, minus 1.8 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 75% in 2024, 78% in 2025, 66% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Campbell, Richmond have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 21 of these 25 games; in the other 4 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.