NC State’s points allowed with Jamel Johnson and without Jamel Johnson
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, NC State was 1.5 points under with Jamel Johnson and 7.7 points over without Jamel Johnson in 2026, 5 games against 2. The plain averages are 27.6 and 23.0, a difference of 4.6. All 4 second-half games were with Jamel Johnson.
Jamel Johnson, defender: 2 games this season.
3 games without Jamel Johnson is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points allowed a game over expected
with Jamel Johnson
−1.5
without Jamel Johnson
+7.7
-10010
A −9.2 difference in points allowed over expected with Jamel Johnson vs without Jamel Johnson is about what you’d expect.
plain
27.6
23.0
0102030
A +4.6 difference in points allowed with Jamel Johnson vs without Jamel Johnson is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Jamel Johnsonwithout Jamel Johnson
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | @ Virginia | L | 34 | 24.7 | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | vs Richmond | W | 0 | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ Vanderbilt | L | 35 | 28.8 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Appalachian State | W | 31 | 20.2 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vs Louisville | W | 28 | 38.0 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Wake Forest | L | 38 | 34.2 | |
| Oct 23, 2026 | @ Stanford | L | 31 | 26.1 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs California | W | 10 | 27.2 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 1.8 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Richmond has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.