Missouri State’s third-down conversion rate with Skyler Locklear and since Skyler Locklear’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Missouri State was 10.0 percentage points under with Skyler Locklear and 7.0 percentage points over since Skyler Locklear’s last game over its last 21 games, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 32.0% and 45.5%, a difference of 13.5%. Both ranked opponents were with Skyler Locklear. All 4 nonconference games were with Skyler Locklear.
Skyler Locklear, quarterback: 788 passing yards, 108 pass attempts and 71 completions in 5 of those 21 games.
3 games since Skyler Locklear’s last game is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −17.0% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Skyler Locklear vs since Skyler Locklear’s last game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Skyler Locklear and it comes up 17 times in 100.
A −13.5% difference in third-down conversion rate with Skyler Locklear vs since Skyler Locklear’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ USC | L | 21.4% | 34.9% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Marshall | W | 43.8% | 36.4% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs SMU | L | 0.0% | 36.9% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vsUUT Martin | W | 50.0% | — | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Western Kentucky | L | 16.7% | 38.2% | |
| Oct 8, 2025 | @ Middle Tennessee | W | 26.7% | 38.2% | |
| Oct 22, 2025 | @ New Mexico State | W | 42.9% | 37.0% | |
| Oct 29, 2025 | vs Florida International | W | 50.0% | 36.2% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Liberty | W | 36.4% | 41.9% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs UTEP | W | 42.9% | 30.1% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Kennesaw State | L | 30.0% | 35.8% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Louisiana Tech | L | 50.0% | 35.0% | |
| Dec 18, 2025 | vs Arkansas State (neutral) | L | 53.3% | 37.9% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Texas A&M | L | 10.0% | 35.8% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsLLindenwood | W | 53.8% | — | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsMarshall | L | 44.4% | 39.4% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @SMU | L | 25.0% | 34.5% | |
| Oct 8, 2026 | @Western Kentucky | L | 26.7% | 36.6% | |
| Oct 14, 2026 | vsKennesaw State | W | 50.0% | 40.2% | |
| Oct 20, 2026 | @ Delaware | L | 50.0% | 36.1% | |
| Oct 27, 2026 | vs Sam Houston | W | 36.4% | 39.2% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Lindenwood has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 13 games in 2025 are neither with Skyler Locklear nor since Skyler Locklear’s last game: Skyler Locklear had no game for the team that season, and sit out.